Firmly grasp the prominent problems faced by the development of China's automotive industry in the post epidemic era
the past decade has been the decade with the largest and most profound changes in the development of the automotive industry. More than 100 years of fuel vehicles have been deeply influenced by modern science and technology and innovation ecology such as new energy and intelligent integration. Coupled with the sudden COVID-19 sweeping the world, the auto industry, which is already a negative growth in sales, has a specific migration total of 0.05mg/kg; 4. The restriction instructions have been updated and frosted. Suffering continues, and it is experiencing great changes that have not been seen in a century. How to firmly grasp the outstanding problems faced by the development of China's automotive industry in the post epidemic era, so as to calmly respond, plan layout, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, fight the initiative, and play the first hand is becoming more and more important
1. How to find business opportunities under the new development pattern of double circulation
for China's automobile industry, we must first hold and do a good job in the domestic market, continue to pay attention to the resumption of work and production after the epidemic, and meet the business opportunities brought by the huge domestic market recovery. Despite the negative growth of China's auto market in recent years, it is still the world's largest market and the market with the greatest potential. How to further develop the domestic market and continuously improve market share is the most important task for independent brands at present, and it is also the key to win sustainable development. Secondly, we should strive to improve the guarantee ability of the industrial chain, especially the independent innovation of key parts and deepen the layout of international and domestic cooperation, enhance the anti risk ability of the industrial chain, and fundamentally solve the passive situation after the outbreak in the first half of this year. It is particularly important to emphasize the importance of deepening cooperation between Chinese enterprises. We should unite to form a joint force, complement each other's advantages, jointly overcome scientific and technological problems and development bottlenecks, and achieve long-term stability. Third, while doing a good job in the domestic market, we should pay attention to the sales of highly competitive products in overseas advantageous markets and traditional markets. Whether it is trade export or setting up factories abroad to realize localized production, we must not forget the risk prevention, including exchange rate risk, political risk and bad debt loss
2. New energy vehicle enterprises have entered the test stage of adding points to the middle school entrance examination. There are two questions in the
adding points test. The first question is how to improve the competitiveness of products? That is, how innovative is the product, whether the cost performance of the product is competitive, and whether the safety of the product is guaranteed? Pan Z generation consumers and old car exchanges are the main consumers of new energy vehicles at present. Intelligent and personalized products, high endurance of more than 500km, no fire and other safety guarantees are the prerequisites for product sales. The second question is whether the enterprise is profitable? Especially after the decline of government subsidies, will the products still make money, and will the enterprise still have operational cash flow. Because the three electricity system, especially the battery cost, remains high, the enterprise capacity utilization rate is low (the industry capacity utilization rate is less than 30% in the past two years), and the decline of government subsidies are the main factors causing the current losses of new energy vehicle enterprises. If an enterprise sells 5000 or even 10000 vehicles a month, and the price of a bicycle is about 200000 yuan, life will be much better. Because five years or so after the high school entrance examination, it is the graduation examination, which is the elimination competition. I predict that at present, there will be about 10 new energy vehicle enterprises with real brand influence and scale, and the market share of these 10 enterprises will exceed 70%. Among them, there are new force car manufacturing enterprises including Tesla, traditional car enterprises (including foreign-funded car enterprises) and luxury car brands. For Chinese auto enterprises, it is very necessary to implement the theme of the just concluded second world new energy vehicle conference, "overcoming difficulties, cross-border coordination, and win-win cooperation"
3. Fuel vehicles will exist for a long time, but energy conservation and emission reduction is the main theme
there are three reasons why fuel vehicles will exist for a long time. First, it is determined by the global energy structure. Experts predict that at present, the proven oil reserves are about 2trillion barrels, which can be used for exploitation and human consumption for about 80 years. Second, huge investment is made in the whole industrial chain of fuel vehicles. Including technology research and development, parts manufacturing, complete machine production line, and after-sales service of vehicles in the society are huge investments. The elimination of fuel vehicles in the short term will cause huge losses, which is unbearable for enterprises, governments, and consumers. Third, there is still a long way to go for new energy vehicles. Pure electric, hybrid, hydrogen fuel and other technical routes are facing the problems of technology upgrading or technology iteration, technical economy, safety and reliability. At the same time, charging and other infrastructure supporting the short board, especially in many small and medium-sized cities, highways have a very arduous task. These all need time, investment, step-by-step and step-by-step solutions
of course, the biggest problem and task of fuel vehicles at present and in the future is energy conservation and emission reduction, which exists in both passenger cars and commercial vehicles. The Chinese government stipulates that by 2025, the average fuel consumption of new passenger cars will be reduced to 4l/100km, 3l/100km in the European Union and 4.8/100km in the United States. This is a tight time, heavy task, great pressure and great challenge for traditional car enterprises. The fuel consumption of new commercial vehicles in 2025 should also be close to the international advanced level. The national implementation of the national Ⅵ B emission standard has been announced since July 1, 2023, which also faces the same problems as passenger vehicle enterprises. Therefore, the energy conservation and emission reduction of fuel vehicles is not only a tough battle for the automotive industry and automotive enterprises in the future, but also a lasting battle
4. The internationalization of Chinese auto enterprises has just begun.
for many years, the export volume of Chinese auto enterprises has been hovering around 1million vehicles, which currently has a production capacity of only 50-60 tons per month. For the total sales of about 25million vehicles, it accounts for less than 5%. The proportion of exports from Europe, America, Japan and South Korea is 5, raising the broach to the top 0% (of which Japan accounts for 48%, South Korea 61%, Germany 78%). In the same sentence, it is unrealistic for a car company to sell its products badly at home and want to sell them abroad. That can only be fantasy. The internationalization of Chinese car enterprises should focus on four aspects. The first is the internationalization of products, that is, products should meet the needs of foreign consumers and adapt to the personalized requirements of consumers in different countries, including regulations, culture, religious beliefs, functional requirements, etc. The second is the localization of supply chain, distributors, financial services, insurance, logistics and other resources. If this is not achieved, not only the cost remains high, but also the local government and consumers do not agree. Third, cooperate with the government to do a good job in mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation and avoid the risks brought by geopolitical, diplomatic and military conflicts. In addition, I don't agree with Chinese car companies to build factories overseas. Joint venture cooperation with local partners at the initial stage of "going out" is a shortcut to integrate into local society earlier. Which kind of experimental machine should we choose? Of course, it is very important to "find the right" partners. At the same time, we should see that the internationalization of Chinese auto enterprises is not only the business of the auto enterprises themselves, but also the common business of the government, banks, insurance, logistics, and even power organs. The successful practice of internationalization of automobile enterprises in Europe, America, Japan, South Korea and other countries is an example for us to learn. The internationalization of car enterprises is a slow and long process, which needs to be done steadily, and we must avoid "rash progress"
5. Challenges faced by high-quality development
in 2019, the capacity utilization rate of passenger cars nationwide fell to 54%, the capacity utilization rate of new energy vehicles was less than 30%, the total profit of the automotive industry in 2019 fell by about 14% year-on-year, and the number of loss making enterprises and unprofitable enterprises was increasing. In addition to the challenges brought by the change in the share ratio of joint ventures (the restrictions on the foreign share ratio of special vehicles and new energy vehicles have been abolished in 2018, the restrictions on the foreign share ratio of commercial vehicles have been abolished in 2020, the restrictions on the foreign share ratio of passenger vehicles have been abolished in 2022, and the restrictions on the number of joint ventures not exceeding two have been abolished, etc.), as well as the era of "high profit distribution and cash cow" that the joint ventures of large domestic automobile enterprises have been playing will not be sustainable. At the same time, multinational car companies have increased their investment in the Chinese market, which has become the most competitive region in the world for domestic and foreign car companies, and the market competition will further intensify
how to deal with the challenges and achieve high-quality and high-quality development is a major issue facing most car enterprises at present and in the future. In my opinion, first of all, we should maintain strategic concentration and do a good job in our competitive products and advantageous businesses, which is the starting point and starting point of the supply side structural reform. I have always believed that enterprises should insist on advancing and retreating, doing something and not doing something, and be serious about what they can't do. Are there still few lessons from the failure of cross-border and cross industry investment? Second, we should adhere to good enterprise management. Although it is a cliche, under the new competitive conditions, it is more and more important to grasp the basic management of enterprises. In particular, the flat and efficient enterprise organization, clear rights and responsibilities, and quantitative assessment are the prerequisites for adapting to market competition. At the same time, risk management should be done in place. Preventing the occurrence of risks and controlling risks and losses are the top priority of enterprise risk management. Only when enterprise management is solid can high-quality development have a foundation. Third, we should continue to improve our innovation ability, especially state-owned enterprises. We should learn from private enterprises, new forces car manufacturing enterprises, and Internet enterprises. We should learn and innovate in the system, motivation, concepts, methods, and development path. We should be objective, scientific, and realistic in affirming and denying ourselves, and don't deceive ourselves. Only by realizing the systematic ability of innovation can enterprises solve the closed-loop management of innovation. Knowledge fission, technology iteration and intensified competition will be normalized in the future, and there is no market for enterprises and business leaders who are good teachers. Fourth, it is also very important to improve capacity utilization and asset utilization efficiency. Relevant government departments should support auto enterprises to withdraw from zombie enterprises, encourage mergers and acquisitions of provincial or cross regional auto enterprises, revitalize production capacity, and guide the internal integration and development of auto groups. In accordance with the requirements of the three-year action plan for the reform of state-owned enterprises and the special action of "three reductions, one reduction and one improvement", we should pay close attention to and do a good job in all work, truly achieve the goal of breaking the situation and reshaping
in a word, only by adhering to innovation and reform, can we achieve more breakthroughs from 0 to 1, and achieve high-quality and high-quality development of China's auto enterprises and the entire auto industry. (Zhang Xiyong, general manager of BAIC group)